Newsom’s reputation is getting worse.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is confronting troubling new polling numbers as he approaches the end of his governorship and continues to attract speculation about a possible 2028 presidential campaign.
A new Politico/UC Berkeley Citrin Center poll found that 55% of registered California voters disapproved of Newsom’s job performance, while just 42% approved.
The survey, conducted September 8 through September 14 among 2,418 registered voters, represents another warning sign for the term-limited Democratic governor.
Newsom’s numbers have slipped since March, when the same polling operation showed him with 46% approval and 51% disapproval.
The latest results come at a politically important moment for both Newsom and California, with voters preparing for the November midterm elections and concerns about the state’s direction remaining widespread.
Independents Sour on Gavin Newsom
One of the most significant findings involves California’s independent voters.
According to the poll, 78% of independents disapproved of Newsom’s job performance.
Republican opposition was even stronger, with 96% of GOP voters saying they disapproved of the governor.
Democrats remained firmly behind Newsom, however. Among Democratic respondents, 72% approved of his performance compared with 25% who disapproved.
That sharp partisan divide shows that Newsom continues to retain his Democratic base even as his overall approval rating struggles.
TrueDot founder and CEO Jon Cohen, whose firm conducted the survey, told Politico that Californians were generally pessimistic about conditions in their state.
“People are pretty dour on the state,” Cohen said.
He noted that voter dissatisfaction has not necessarily translated into rejection of Democratic candidates at the top of the ballot, but said Newsom’s approval numbers appear connected to broader assessments of California’s direction.
Californians Are Worried About the State’s Direction
Separate polling from the Public Policy Institute of California reinforces the larger picture of voter concern.
PPIC’s September statewide survey found that 54% of California adults said the state was headed in the wrong direction, compared with 45% who believed it was headed in the right direction.
Among likely voters, 52% said California was headed in the wrong direction.
Economic anxiety was also widespread.
According to PPIC, 71% of California adults expected the state to experience bad economic times during the next 12 months. Among likely voters, that figure climbed to 73%.
Those concerns cut across many of the issues that have dominated California politics, including inflation, housing costs and the overall cost of living.
PPIC also found that majorities said recent price increases had created financial hardship for their households.
The economic concerns are not entirely new.
In PPIC’s February survey, 71% of Californians said their income was not keeping pace with inflation, while cost-of-living and economic concerns ranked as the most frequently mentioned issue state leaders needed to address.
Newsom’s Approval Remains Mixed
Not every survey paints the same picture of Newsom.
PPIC’s September survey found that 51% of California adults approved of Newsom’s performance while 47% disapproved.
The organization reported that approximately half of likely voters also approved of his job performance.
That is considerably more favorable than the Politico/UC Berkeley poll.
Differences between surveys can result from methodology, sample composition, question wording and whether researchers survey all adults, registered voters or likely voters.
Still, both polling efforts reveal substantial dissatisfaction with California’s overall direction.
PPIC found that nearly all Republicans believed California was headed in the wrong direction, while independents were also more pessimistic than optimistic. Democrats were considerably more positive.
California’s Cost of Living Remains a Major Concern
Affordability continues to hang over California politics.
In PPIC’s May survey, 44% of California adults identified the cost of living and the economy as the state’s most important issue.
Housing costs and availability ranked second at 14%.
The September survey showed that economic pessimism remained widespread, with roughly seven in ten Californians expecting difficult financial conditions in the year ahead.
Housing remains another pressure point.
PPIC found that 44% of adults said housing costs put at least some financial strain on their families, including 24% who described the strain as significant.
Those pocketbook concerns could continue shaping California politics long after Newsom leaves the governor’s office.
Newsom Faces Questions About a 2028 Presidential Run
The polling carries additional significance because Newsom is widely discussed as a potential contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
He has not formally launched a presidential campaign.
But voter enthusiasm about that possibility has declined.
The Politico polling cited in the original report found that 37% of registered California voters said they would be excited about Newsom running for president.
Earlier in the year, that number reportedly stood at 48%.
That decline does not determine how Newsom would perform in a future Democratic primary, but it highlights the political challenge he could face in converting his national profile into broader enthusiasm.
Newsom Says Kamala Harris Could Affect His Decision
Newsom has also said that former Vice President Kamala Harris could influence his decision about whether to enter the 2028 race.
When asked about the possibility, Newsom said he would not run if Harris entered the contest.
Harris has not announced whether she will seek the Democratic nomination.
That leaves the Democratic field unsettled more than two years before the next presidential election cycle begins in earnest.
For Newsom, however, the immediate numbers are clear: he continues to command strong support among California Democrats while facing overwhelming opposition from Republicans and substantial dissatisfaction among independents.
What the New Polling Means for Newsom
The latest numbers do not show California suddenly becoming a Republican state.
Democrats remain politically powerful, and separate polling continues to show strong Democratic support in major statewide contests.
Instead, the surveys highlight a different problem for Newsom: many Californians who may still vote Democratic are dissatisfied with the governor or pessimistic about conditions in the state.
Economic anxiety, housing affordability and the cost of living remain central concerns.
That distinction could become increasingly important if Newsom attempts to take his political record beyond California.
As he approaches the end of his governorship, voters — both inside California and across the country — are likely to take a closer look at his record, the state’s economic challenges and whether California’s problems could follow him onto the national political stage.
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