Talarico and the Democrats think they have a chance but President Trump just changed everything.
Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into Texas as President Donald Trump and Senate GOP leaders rally behind Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Paxton, the Texas attorney general and a longtime Trump ally, is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a closely watched race that could have major implications for control of the U.S. Senate.
Now, some of the Republican Party’s biggest political organizations are stepping in.
Texas PAC, a new group connected to the Senate Leadership Fund, has launched a major advertising effort supporting Paxton. The Senate Leadership Fund is affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota.
According to advertising-tracking data reported by The Texas Tribune, Texas PAC purchased an initial roughly $32 million in broadcast television advertising across the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Austin markets.
The move represents a major infusion of outside money into a Texas Senate race drawing increasing national attention.
And it comes shortly after Trump’s political operation made a major investment of its own.
Trump-Aligned Group Puts $10 Million Behind Paxton
MAGA Inc., the super PAC aligned with President Trump, recently purchased $10 million worth of advertising in Texas supporting Paxton’s Senate bid.
It was the group’s first major general-election investment of the 2026 midterm cycle.
The two spending efforts mean Republican organizations are committing tens of millions of dollars to the Texas contest as Election Day approaches.
The Republican spending also highlights how much has changed since the party’s bruising Senate primary.
Senate Republican leaders originally supported longtime Sen. John Cornyn against Paxton. Trump, however, backed Paxton.
Paxton eventually defeated Cornyn in the Republican runoff and secured the nomination.
With that battle finished, Republican leaders who once opposed Paxton are now lining up behind him in the general election.
Senate Republicans Unite Behind Paxton
Thune has made clear that Republicans consider Texas important to their effort to maintain control of the Senate.
“As the Democrat Party gets pulled further to the left, extreme candidates like James Talarico are becoming the norm,” Thune said in a statement to Fox News Digital.
That characterization reflects the Republican argument against Talarico. The Democratic candidate and his campaign have pushed back against Republican attacks on his record and have presented him as a candidate focused on issues such as affordability and government reform.
The general-election battle is therefore becoming a contest not only between Paxton and Talarico, but also between two competing descriptions of where Texas voters want the state to go.
Republican groups are expected to use their advertising money both to promote Paxton and criticize Talarico’s record and policy positions.
Why Republicans Are Spending So Much In Texas
Texas has been reliably Republican in statewide elections for decades, but the 2026 Senate contest has become unusually competitive.
Public polling has shown a close race, with several surveys giving Talarico a narrow advantage.
A Fox News poll conducted in late July, for example, showed Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 48%.
Individual polls are snapshots rather than predictions of the final result, but the numbers help explain why national political organizations are devoting substantial resources to Texas.
Another factor is money.
Talarico built a significant fundraising advantage while Paxton was still fighting through a lengthy Republican primary.
That allowed the Democrat to begin advertising heavily while Paxton and Republican organizations were still recovering from the GOP nomination fight.
Paxton Faced A Major Money Disadvantage
Talarico’s financial advantage has been one of the central dynamics of the race.
He began spending heavily on television and other advertising during the summer, while Paxton had a much smaller presence on the airwaves.
Paxton argues that the timing of the Republican primary contributed to the difference.
“Talarico had three extra months to raise money and not spend it,” Paxton told Fox News’ Bret Baier.
Paxton said his own campaign had to rebuild its resources after the primary before launching its general-election advertising.
That is where outside Republican groups could make a significant difference.
The Senate Leadership Fund’s allies and Trump’s MAGA Inc. can spend independently to promote Paxton or oppose Talarico, giving Republicans additional resources without relying entirely on Paxton’s campaign account.
Texas Senate Race Draws National Attention
The Texas contest matters well beyond the state’s borders.
Republicans are fighting to protect their Senate majority in the November midterms, while Democrats are looking for opportunities to gain seats.
That makes competitive races especially important.
Texas is particularly notable because Republicans have dominated statewide elections there for years. A competitive Senate contest requires national GOP organizations to devote resources to a state that historically has been considered safer Republican territory.
For Democrats, meanwhile, the race represents an opportunity to compete for a Senate seat in one of America’s largest states.
Both sides therefore have powerful incentives to invest.
Trump’s Endorsement Reshaped The Race
Trump’s involvement has been a major part of Paxton’s path to the Republican nomination.
The president backed Paxton over Cornyn during the primary, putting himself opposite some members of the Senate Republican establishment.
Paxton’s victory created an immediate question: Would Republican leaders who had supported Cornyn fully embrace Paxton in the general election?
The answer is becoming clearer.
Senate Republican organizations are now spending heavily on Paxton’s behalf, while Trump’s political operation is doing the same.
The primary divisions have largely given way to a shared Republican objective of keeping the Texas seat under GOP control.
Millions Pour Into The Lone Star State
The numbers demonstrate the scale of the political battle.
Texas PAC’s initial broadcast purchase was approximately $32 million, according to AdImpact data reported by The Texas Tribune.
MAGA Inc. has separately committed $10 million in Texas advertising.
Other political organizations are also spending money in the contest, meaning Texans are likely to see an intense advertising campaign heading into November.
For Paxton, the outside spending provides much-needed support after months in which Talarico enjoyed a substantial advantage on the airwaves.
For Talarico, the arrival of Republican money means his campaign will face a much larger conservative advertising operation during the final stretch.
The Stakes Are Bigger Than Texas
Ultimately, the decision belongs to Texas voters.
Paxton is campaigning as a conservative Republican closely aligned with Trump, while Talarico is offering voters a Democratic alternative and disputing Republican descriptions of his record.
The flood of outside spending cannot determine the outcome, but it demonstrates how important national political groups consider the contest.
What began as a bitter Republican primary has now turned into a major general-election fight.
Trump backed Paxton when powerful Senate Republicans supported someone else. Paxton won the nomination. Now those Republican factions are joining forces as November approaches.
With tens of millions of dollars in new advertising entering the race, the political cavalry has arrived for Ken Paxton.
And the battle for Texas — and potentially control of the U.S. Senate — is entering its most consequential stretch.
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