Here’s what happened.
President Donald Trump is facing a troubling new poll just weeks before the midterm elections, giving Republicans another major political challenge as voters prepare to decide control of Congress.
A new Wall Street Journal poll puts Trump’s job approval rating at just 37 percent, the lowest recorded for any president heading into a midterm election in Journal polling dating back to 1990.
The number comes at a critical time for Trump and the Republican Party, with voters increasingly focused on the economy, gasoline prices, immigration, the Iran conflict and the overall cost of living.
For Republicans hoping to maintain control of Congress, the latest numbers provide another indication that the final weeks before Election Day could be closely fought.
Trump Approval Rating Falls to 37 Percent
According to the Wall Street Journal survey, only 37 percent of registered voters approve of Trump’s job performance.
That is below the 39 percent approval rating recorded for former President George W. Bush shortly before the 2006 midterm elections.
The Journal said Trump’s latest number represents the lowest pre-midterm presidential approval rating in its polling history going back more than three decades.
Presidential approval does not automatically determine the outcome of congressional races, but it can influence voter enthusiasm, turnout and how Americans view candidates from the president’s party.
That makes the latest poll especially important with Election Day rapidly approaching.
Economy Remains a Major Concern for Voters
One of Trump’s biggest challenges in the survey involves the economy.
The poll found that 60 percent of respondents believe Trump’s economic policies have made the economy worse.
Another 25 percent said his policies have improved economic conditions, while 10 percent said they have had little or no effect.
The findings come as Americans continue dealing with elevated prices for gasoline and other everyday expenses.
For voters over 50, retirees and households living on fixed incomes, increases in transportation, food, utilities and other necessities can have an especially noticeable impact on monthly budgets.
Economic concerns traditionally play an important role in elections, and Republicans are likely to spend the remaining weeks highlighting areas where they believe Trump’s agenda has produced positive results.
Democrats, meanwhile, are expected to continue focusing heavily on inflation, energy costs and household affordability.
Gas Prices Add Pressure Before Election Day
Gasoline prices have become another important issue heading into the midterms.
AAA reported in late September that the national average price for regular gasoline was approximately $4.48 per gallon.
One year earlier, the average was about $3.16 per gallon.
That represents an increase of more than $1.30 per gallon compared with the same period last year.
For someone filling a 15-gallon tank, that difference can mean roughly $20 more each time they visit the pump.
AAA said volatility surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and higher crude oil prices have contributed to the elevated cost of gasoline.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, meaning disruptions in the region can quickly affect global energy markets.
Iran Conflict Looms Over the Midterms
The continuing conflict with Iran is also playing a prominent role in the political environment.
The war has placed additional attention on U.S. foreign policy while contributing to uncertainty in energy markets.
Trump has repeatedly defended his approach to Iran, while critics have questioned the economic and geopolitical costs of the conflict.
For voters, the issue now intersects with concerns much closer to home.
Higher oil prices can affect not only what Americans pay at gasoline stations but also transportation, shipping and ultimately the cost of consumer goods.
That connection between foreign policy and household expenses could make the Iran issue especially significant during the campaign’s final weeks.
Republicans Face a Difficult Political Environment
Republicans are entering the final stretch of the midterm campaign with several significant issues competing for voters’ attention.
Among them are the economy, gasoline prices, immigration, border security, crime and the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Trump and Republican candidates are expected to emphasize their positions on immigration, public safety, energy production and other issues where they believe voters may prefer GOP policies.
Democrats are likely to focus more heavily on economic dissatisfaction and voter concerns surrounding the administration.
The result could be a campaign dominated by a basic question: Which issues matter most to Americans when they enter the voting booth?
Democrats Hope to Capitalize on Trump’s Numbers
Some election analysts have argued that Democrats are in a stronger position than they were earlier in the election cycle.
Charlie Cook, founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, recently said he believes Democrats have strong prospects of gaining control of the House.
He also said Democratic chances of competing for Senate control have become more realistic than they appeared a year earlier.
Those statements remain political analysis rather than election results, and voters will ultimately determine control of Congress.
Individual Senate and House contests can also depend heavily on local candidates, state-level issues and turnout.
Trump Still Has Time to Rally Republican Voters
Despite the concerning poll numbers, several weeks remain for Trump and Republican candidates to make their case.
Trump continues to command significant loyalty among Republican voters, and motivating those supporters could be critical for the GOP.
Midterm elections can depend heavily on turnout.
A party with highly motivated voters can sometimes outperform expectations even when national approval ratings appear unfavorable.
Republicans will therefore be looking to energize conservatives by focusing on issues including immigration enforcement, taxes, regulation, energy production and public safety.
At the same time, Democrats will attempt to turn dissatisfaction with the economy and the administration into increased turnout among their own supporters.
One Poll Does Not Decide an Election
It is important to remember that the Wall Street Journal survey represents a snapshot of voter opinion at one moment in time.
The poll was conducted from September 16 through September 21 among 1,500 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Polls can change as campaigns progress, and national polling does not always reflect what is happening inside individual House districts or Senate races.
Unexpected events, economic developments and shifts in voter enthusiasm could still change the political environment before Election Day.
What Happens Next Could Be Critical
Trump’s 37 percent approval rating nevertheless gives Republicans a clear political challenge as they head into the final weeks of the midterm campaign.
With gasoline prices elevated, economic concerns remaining front and center and the Iran conflict continuing, voters have several major issues to consider.
Republicans will attempt to convince Americans that Trump’s broader agenda on immigration, energy, taxes and national security deserves continued congressional support.
Democrats will make their own case that voters should change the direction of Washington.
What happens over the remaining weeks could determine which party controls Congress — and shape the final two years of Trump’s current term.
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