This is a concerning sign for the GOP.
A newly released poll is raising fresh questions about the battle for one of the most important Senate seats in the country, with Democrats holding an early advantage in the race that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate.
The Fox News survey shows former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by nine percentage points, giving Democrats early momentum in the race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis.
According to the poll, 53% of registered voters back Cooper, while 44% support Whatley.
North Carolina has long been one of America’s premier political battlegrounds, making this contest a top priority for both Republicans and Democrats heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
President Donald Trump quickly lined up behind Whatley after he entered the race. Trump endorsed the Republican candidate last summer and later invited him to address supporters during a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, signaling that the White House views the seat as critical to maintaining the GOP’s Senate majority.
The poll suggests Trump’s endorsement remains a powerful asset with many Republican voters, but it also highlights the challenge of winning over independents and swing voters. Nearly half of those surveyed—48%—said Whatley’s close relationship with Trump raises concerns, while 50% said it does not.
Cooper faces political challenges of his own. The survey found that 42% of voters are concerned about his ties to the national Democratic Party, while 56% said those connections are not a major issue.
With months still remaining before Election Day, both parties are already pouring millions of dollars into television, digital, and grassroots campaigns in an effort to shape voter opinions.
A Republican-aligned outside group, the Super Leadership Fund, recently launched a $17 million advertising campaign criticizing Cooper’s record as governor, with messaging focused on crime, public safety, and leadership.
Democrats have responded with an aggressive media strategy of their own. The WinSenate PAC announced a $2.26 million advertising buy targeting Whatley over personnel decisions made during his tenure leading the North Carolina Republican Party.
Political analysts expect outside spending to climb dramatically as Election Day approaches, making North Carolina one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races in America.
While early polls often shift as campaigns unfold, the latest numbers give Democrats an early edge in a state Republicans have considered essential to protecting their Senate majority. With President Trump actively backing Whatley and both parties investing heavily in advertising, the race is expected to remain one of the nation’s biggest political stories over the coming months.
The Fox News poll surveyed 1,005 registered North Carolina voters between July 23 and July 27. The survey was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
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