California Democrats appear to be sending their party establishment a warning.
A new statewide poll found that the label “Democratic socialist” generates more enthusiasm among California voters than “mainstream Democrat,” highlighting the growing divide between the party’s traditional establishment and its progressive wing.
The findings could have significant implications as Democrats debate what direction the party should take heading into future elections.
The University of California, Berkeley survey questioned more than 4,000 registered California voters from Aug. 3 through Aug. 9. Participants included Democrats, Republicans and independent voters.
Rather than asking respondents to choose between specific politicians, researchers tested their reactions to several political descriptions, including “progressive,” “Democratic socialist,” “mainstream Democrat,” “MAGA supporter” and “Republican.”
The results revealed a striking enthusiasm gap.
Democratic Socialism Gains Ground in California
According to the poll, 38% of registered California voters said the “Democratic socialist” label would make them more likely to support a candidate.
Among Democrats, support was considerably higher.
A notable 58% of Democratic respondents said the label would make them more inclined to vote for a candidate, while only 16% said it would make them less likely to do so.
The statewide numbers were more divided because of opposition from Republican voters. Overall, 38% of California voters said identifying a candidate as a Democratic socialist would make them less likely to offer their support.
Even so, the results demonstrate how dramatically attitudes toward the label have changed within Democratic politics.
Socialism was once widely viewed as a politically damaging description for candidates seeking major elected office. In California, at least, that appears to be changing among Democratic voters.
“Mainstream Democrat” Falls Behind
The results for establishment Democrats could prove even more significant.
Only 29% of California voters said the description “mainstream Democrat” would make them more likely to support a candidate.
Fewer than half of Democratic respondents considered the label a positive.
That means the Democratic socialist label generated substantially more enthusiasm among Democrats than the description associated with the party’s traditional establishment.
For longtime Democratic leaders, that could be a warning sign.
California has produced some of the most influential establishment Democrats in modern American politics, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But the poll suggests that simply being identified with the party’s mainstream may no longer carry the political appeal it once did.
Importantly, the survey did not ask voters whether they supported Pelosi or any other individual establishment politician. The results instead measure voters’ reactions to broader political labels.
Progressives Score the Strongest Numbers
The most popular political description tested was “progressive.”
Forty percent of all registered voters said that label would make them more inclined to support a candidate.
Among Democrats, the figure jumped to 60%.
Only 29% of all voters said the progressive label would make them less likely to support someone.
Taken together, the numbers suggest Democratic voters in California currently respond more favorably to candidates presented as progressives or Democratic socialists than to those characterized simply as mainstream Democrats.
That doesn’t necessarily mean voters support every policy associated with those movements. But it does indicate which political identities currently generate enthusiasm.
Younger Voters Could Be Driving the Shift
Poll director Mark DiCamillo pointed to younger voters as an important part of the story.
“There’s particular frustration among the younger voting population,” DiCamillo told the Los Angeles Times, which helped fund the poll.
He said younger voters’ views of mainstream Democrats “are not that positive,” something he described as a potential long-term problem for the Democratic Party.
That generational divide could become increasingly important as younger Californians account for a larger share of the electorate.
For Democratic leaders, the challenge may be finding a way to maintain support from longtime party voters while preventing younger and more progressive voters from becoming disillusioned with establishment candidates.
Democratic Civil War Moves to the Ballot Box
The findings arrive as Democrats are already confronting an ideological struggle between establishment candidates and the party’s increasingly influential progressive and socialist factions.
Several recent elections have demonstrated that candidates running to the left of traditional Democrats can be competitive — and, in some cases, pull off surprising primary victories.
California will provide another major test in November.
One closely watched contest is unfolding in Los Angeles, where socialist City Councilmember Nithya Raman is attempting to defeat incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
Congressional contests could provide additional evidence about the direction Democratic voters are moving.
Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, a self-described socialist, is mounting a congressional challenge against longtime Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui.
In the Los Angeles region, Angela Gonzales-Torres is running against Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez with backing from the progressive political group Justice Democrats.
Those races will provide something an opinion poll cannot: actual election results.
There Are Still Limits to the Progressive Movement
California’s recent political history also provides reasons not to assume the Democratic establishment is finished.
Billionaire Tom Steyer positioned himself as a strongly progressive candidate during California’s gubernatorial primary but failed to overcome a late surge from Xavier Becerra, who enjoyed backing from numerous establishment Democrats.
That outcome highlights an important limitation of polls based on political labels.
A voter might respond favorably to the word “progressive” or “Democratic socialist” while still choosing a more traditional candidate when faced with two actual names on a ballot.
Experience, economic conditions, crime, housing, taxes, personality and local issues can ultimately matter more than ideological branding.
California Socialists Celebrate the Poll
Members of the California Democratic Socialists of America nevertheless see the results as evidence that their movement is becoming increasingly acceptable to voters.
Misha Kesselman, who leads membership coordination for the organization, described the findings as encouraging.
“I don’t see this as our ceiling; this is a great floor for us to start running from,” Kesselman told the Los Angeles Times.
For Democratic socialists, that optimism is understandable.
A political description that once risked becoming an immediate liability now receives a positive response from a majority of Democratic voters surveyed in America’s most populous state.
What the Poll Means for Democrats
The larger story may not be that California is suddenly becoming socialist.
Instead, the poll suggests that Democratic voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the party’s traditional political identity and are showing greater enthusiasm for alternatives on the left.
That presents establishment Democrats with a difficult question.
Do they move further toward the progressive wing in an attempt to capture that enthusiasm, or maintain a more conventional Democratic platform they believe could perform better with moderates and independents?
There is also an important distinction between California’s electorate and the country as a whole. Political attitudes in one heavily Democratic state cannot automatically be applied to swing states or national elections.
Still, California matters enormously to the Democratic Party. It is home to millions of Democratic voters, major donors and some of the party’s most prominent political figures.
If progressive and Democratic socialist candidates begin consistently defeating establishment Democrats there, the effects could eventually reach far beyond California.
For now, the poll offers a clear warning for the party’s old guard: among California Democrats surveyed, the “mainstream” label isn’t generating the enthusiasm it once did.
November’s elections will reveal whether that dissatisfaction is strong enough to translate into victories at the ballot box.
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