Illinois Might Be The Worst Democratic Gerrymander In The Nation

The worst Democratic gerrymander within the nation is arguably in Illinois, because it set off a high-stakes sport of musical chairs among the many state’s 5 Republican Home members.

Nathaniel Rakich:Considered one of our best presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was a Republican from Illinois. However the state’s new gerrymandered congressional map appears hell-bent on making Republican congressmen from Illinois an endangered species.

There are at present 5 Republicans in Illinois’s U.S. Home delegation. However that was apparently too many for the Democrats who had been accountable for Illinois redistricting final fall. They drew a map that packed all 5 Republicans into simply three congressional districts.

That kicked off a high-stakes sport of electoral musical chairs. At first, Congressman Mike Bost and Congresswoman Mary Miller had been thrown collectively into the twelfth District, whereas Congressman Rodney Davis was alone within the fifteenth District. However the far-right Miller apparently determined she had a greater shot of staying in Congress if she ran for reelection within the fifteenth towards Davis, who’s extra average. In the meantime, over within the sixteenth District, Congressmen Darin LaHood and Adam Kinzinger had been additionally double-bunked, a state of affairs that was solely resolved when Kinzinger determined to not search reelection.

Consequently, Democrats might maintain 14 of Illinois’s 17 congressional seats after the 2022 election. That’s 82 p.c of seats, although they’ll in all probability win lower than 60 p.c of the state’s standard vote. That’s potential solely due to what number of Republican votes are “wasted” underneath the brand new map — both as a result of they’re being forged in a district that’s already safely purple or as a result of they’re outnumbered by Democratic votes. Both manner, these votes don’t rely towards a win.

Primarily based on the 2020 presidential election outcomes, this map wastes 1.9 million Republican votes. That’s virtually twice the variety of Democratic votes which are wasted underneath the map.

Theoretically, if Republicans and Democrats had the identical variety of wasted votes in Illinois, Republicans would win 2.2 extra congressional seats than underneath a gerrymander of this caliber. By that measure, Illinois is the worst gerrymander within the nation drawn by Democrats.

Illinois’s aggressive gerrymander is a giant a part of the explanation Democrats have gained seats from redistricting nationwide this 12 months. But it surely might additionally backfire. In an effort to draw so many blue seats, Democrats needed to unfold their voters skinny, leaving some districts with solely a small Democratic lean. If Republicans have a robust 2022 election, they might find yourself profitable not solely their three safely purple seats but in addition these light-blue seats. This gerrymander might find yourself being the largest blunder in Illinois since Mrs. O’Leary’s cow knocked over that lantern.

To make sure, this map will almost certainly assist Democrats of their quest to carry onto the Home. But it surely’s additionally potential that they’ve bitten off greater than they will chew.